Chris Kremidas-Courtney
“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge.” ~ Stephen Hawking
In a world awash in deepfakes, synthetic voices, and algorithmic echo chambers, it is tempting to blame technology alone for our descent into unreality. But new research published in the Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin offers a sobering insight: our vulnerability to disinformation may not start with AI or algorithms, but with us.
The study, Overconfidently Conspiratorial, reveals that belief in conspiracy theories correlates not just with political ideology or a need for uniqueness, but with something more fundamental: overconfidence. People who believe in conspiracies consistently overestimate both their own knowledge and how widely their beliefs are shared. In fact, even when only 12% of people agreed with a conspiratorial claim, believers thought 93% did.
This matters deeply because we now know that disinformation doesn’t merely mislead people. It mobilizes them.
We’ve seen it during pandemics, natural disasters, and elections: disinformation drives real-world harm by exploiting our cognitive vulnerabilities. But this new research adds an urgent twist; those most confident in their false beliefs are the least likely to question them.
In my work on countering disinformation, I’ve long argued that we are moving beyond a “post-truth” world and into something more dangerous: a post-reality world. A place where wearable augmented reality, emotion-sensing AI, and hyper-personalized information ecosystems can conspire to undermine our shared sense of what is true.
What this new research confirms is that reality jamming (the mass distortion of our cognitive landscape) relies on more than just bots or algorithms. It depends on the human tendency to cling to false certainty and assume consensus where none exists.
This isn’t about stupidity or ignorance. Some of the most overconfident are also the most articulate and passionate. But passion does not equal precision. And the path from overconfidence to conspiracy is paved with certainty; a certainty that can outpace truth.
For years, democratic governments have focused on fact-checking, takedown requests, and platform accountability. Those efforts matter. But they address the symptoms, not the source.
It is time to shift from merely countering disinformation to building cognitive self-determination; the right and ability of each person to discern, question, and make sense of reality in the face of manipulation. To do this, we must:
- Teach Cognitive Humility: Just as we teach reading or math, we must teach people how to question their own certainty and recognize the limits of their knowledge. Confidence calibration must be part of public education and civic training.
- Expose the Illusion of Consensus: Disinformation thrives on the lie that “everyone thinks this way.” Governments and civil society’s education efforts must also help people to see when their views are truly fringe.
- Design for Doubt: Tech platforms can no longer prioritize engagement over epistemic integrity. They must be redesigned to foster discernment and deliberation, not just confirmation. Nudges toward reflection must become as common as “likes.”
- Protect the Right to Reality: Just as we defend the right to privacy or freedom of speech, we must now recognize and enshrine cognitive rights, including the right not to be persistently manipulated by opaque AI systems or weaponized narratives.
Make no mistake: democracy’s survival depends not just on ballots, but on brains. If we allow overconfidence and illusion to corrode the cognitive integrity of our societies, no firewall, tank, or treaty will be enough.
We are no longer just fighting for information integrity but for the integrity of reality itself. It’s time to stop asking: “How do we counter disinformation?” And start asking: “How do we empower people to know when they are wrong?”
Because the battle for reality will not be won by who shouts loudest. It will be won by those who can think clearly and humbly amidst a storm of certainty.
Chris Kremidas-Courtney is a senior visiting fellow at the European Policy Centre, associate fellow at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, Senior Advisor for Greece Fact Check and Defend Democracy, and author of The Rest of Your Life.